Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 05 2024 08:42:11

ACUS48 KWNS 050842
SWOD48
SPC AC 050840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The large upper cyclone that is expected to persist across
southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS throughout the end of
the week will likely begin breaking down on D4/Saturday, when a
series of shortwave troughs begin progressing through its southern
periphery. The evolution of these shortwaves is expected to induce a
more progressive character to this cyclone while also amplifying the
troughing across the eastern CONUS on D5/Sunday. This upper
troughing is then forecast to shift eastward off the East Coast on
D6/Monday.

The evolution of this cyclone will encourage a southward push of
continental air across the central Plains and Mid MS/OH Valleys on
D4/Saturday, likely continuing southward across the southern Plains
and much of the Southeast on D5/Sunday. Upslope flow behind the
front may contribute to thunderstorms across the central High Plains
on D4/Saturday, with additional storms possible ahead of the front
over the Ozark Plateau vicinity. Uncertainty regarding frontal
timing as well as overall severe coverage limits predictability.
Thunderstorms are possible along the front across the southern
Plains and Southeast on D5/Sunday, but may trend towards a more
anafrontal character given the boundary-parallel orientation of the
deep-layer shear vector.

Guidance begins to diverge on D6/Monday, resulting significant
differences in forecast low-level moisture across the Plains and
Southeast States. These difference lower forecast confidence and
limit predictability.

...Mosier.. 06/05/2024

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