Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 04 2024 05:31:36

AWUS01 KWNH 040531
FFGMPD
OKZ000-040830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0393
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
131 AM EDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Areas affected...Oklahoma City Metropolitan Area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040530Z - 040830Z

SUMMARY...Strong and slow-moving thunderstorm activity may become
locally focused around the Oklahoma City metropolitan area over
the next 1 to 2 hours. An urban flash flood threat will exist as a
result.

DISCUSSION...A gradually growing cluster of strong thunderstorms
just west of Oklahoma City is expected to grow upscale over the
next 1 to 2 hours and eventually phase in with a more
regional/elongated axis of convection farther down to the
southeast over central to southeast OK overnight. Strong
instability and an increasing low-level jet over the region are
the dominant factors with the upscale growth of convection
expected in the near-term.

Rainfall rates with the approaching activity from Grady, Caddo and
Canadian Counties are expected to increase to locally over
2"/hour, and given the cooling cloud top trends in GOES-IR
satellite imagery, this cluster of convection should attain
further organization while expanding overall in coverage.

Concerns will exist over the next couple of hours for the Oklahoma
City metropolitan area and adjacent suburbs as these slow-moving
cells advance and also perhaps locally backbuild and train over
the same area.

Expect as much as 3 to 4 inches of rain with locally heavier
totals over the next couple of hours. Flash flooding is likely
given the urban sensitivities and wet overall antecedent
conditions.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7MXxFBNGVO5kPq-kb-NCJqINQTt0fgvpt1GrGyd71M2uPAKSwBXCOTbyxqRdn8cJ790Z=
ERgiVyPCnBwT_9xjy8Hu5Jw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35639779 35569709 35439669 35249651 35009661=20
            34999734 35099803 35279840 35579832=20

=3D =3D =3D
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