Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 04 2024 03:06:04

AWUS01 KWNH 040306
FFGMPD
WIZ000-040603-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0391
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1104 PM EDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...Portions of South-Central to Southeast WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040303Z - 040603Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will continue to be possible in
the near-term across portions of south-central to southeast WI as
a broken band of heavy showers and thunderstorms continues to
persist and locally trains over the same area.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a broken, but
persistent band of heavy showers and thunderstorms lingering over
areas of south-central WI. A moist and relatively unstable 20 to
30 kt low-level jet continues to overrun a surface boundary draped
across areas of far northern IL, and the isentropic ascent north
of this front coupled with the instability and some weak
right-entrance region upper jet dynamics will continue to favor at
least some convection persisting over the next 2 to 3 hours.

Rainfall rates with some of the ongoing activity continues to be
on the order of 1 to 2 inches/hour, and there has been some
backbuilding and localized cell-training promoting concerns for
excessive rainfall totals. The 00Z HREF guidance suggests at least
some small-scale additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
going through 06Z.

Given some of the earlier rainfall and lower FFG values that are
in place, the additional rains should continue to foster at least
small-scale flash flooding concerns for a few more hours.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_c2t0-ftVasFwoFf0YEZh6Jlu8m0Ji_QXqqPtSXZgYb07byzRwwOHyR0rFSDFkr3rKcJ=
FdiCafFBpN0S5ln-y9wLb4k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43618867 43538781 43278779 43128815 43058883=20
            43058965 43179008 43319012 43518966=20

=3D =3D =3D
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