Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 04 2024 00:47:06

AWUS01 KWNH 040046
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0390
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
846 PM EDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Wisconsin, far northern
Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040045Z - 040300Z

Summary...Areas of training/backbuilding storms were observed west
of Milwaukee Metro area over the past half hour.  One-inch per
hour rain rates were estimated with this activity.  Flash flooding
is possible with this cluster as it reaches more
urbanized/populated areas through 03Z.

Discussion..A small cluster of convection was making steady
progress toward the Milwaukee/Kenosha Metro areas and surrounding
suburbs.  The cluster was embedded within weakly confluent
southwesterly low-level flow, which was maintaining a moderately
unstable airmass (~1500 J/kg MLCAPE) on the southwestern flank of
the cluster.  The combination of the cluster and a trailing
outflow (oriented parallel to low-level flow) was allowing for
localized backbuilding with this cluster, resulting in a modest
increase in rain rates to around 1 inch/hr.  On its current track,
this cluster will impact urban areas of southeastern Wisconsin
(and perhaps far northeastern Illinois) over the next hour or so.

Downstream, FFG thresholds are generally in the 0.75-1 inch/hr
range.  The cluster will result in areas of heavy rainfall that
locally exceed these thresholds.  Urban-area flash flooding is
possible in this regime.  Eventually the cluster will exit the
area to the east and emerge over southern Lake of Michigan waters
- most likely after 0230Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7rc-omFFWcuXjWSjE30ZWeylpNREoYIHUF1O4Pd0Se93E-xEnbin8PPyR3tzGqWpxq5w=
hUVy0cLsLoFKnfsymccZGSI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43268831 43248760 42648736 42228755 42088900=20
            42458938 42978885=20

=3D =3D =3D
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