Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1155
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 03 2024 23:36:54

ACUS11 KWNS 032336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032336=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-040130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Northern Louisiana...Southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385...

Valid 032336Z - 040130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat will be possible
with the stronger cells embedded in and ahead of a line segment from
northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
Additional weather watch issuance remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS that
is moving southeast at about 35 knots across the Ark-La-Tex. A
pocket of strong instability is present ahead of the line, where
surface dewpoints are in the 70s F and MLCAPE is estimated in the
2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The instability, along with strong
large-scale ascent associated with a vorticity maxima and low-level
convergence, will support the linear MCS for several more hours as
it moves southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The
WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with
directional shear in the lowest 2 km. This environment will continue
to support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger segments
along the leading edge of the line. Cells that form ahead of the
line could also have a hail threat.

...Broyles.. 06/03/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4tSiFnIp7FTxZ-Ci5NQqybclzVeRge-2NWMlMUKZVKBT7Jxvji8n2Ygr148koaXSbLFZXh7P9=
brLoIn10MUEVqE4ZJw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   33119387 33739272 33879224 33809177 33489146 32799154
            32139208 31779282 31499389 31579517 31909611 32279651
            32859657 33129616 33009513 33119387=20


=3D =3D =3D
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