Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1154
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 03 2024 22:09:52

ACUS11 KWNS 032209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032209=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-040015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...Far eastern MT and western ND

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032209Z - 040015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected this afternoon and
continuing into the evening. A few damaging gusts and isolated hail
are possible. A Watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 22 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated
thunderstorms had initiated on the eastern edge of a persistent
cloud shield near the MT/ND border. Strong diurnal heating has
allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s
F. While surface moisture has mixed somewhat, low 50s F surface
dewpoints and weak upslope flow are contributing to weak
destabilization. These storms, and additional development may
continue eastward into western ND with a risk for damaging winds
given the relatively high cloud bases. While buoyancy is modest
(~500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) occasional hail will be possible with the
stronger updrafts. Given the somewhat limited buoyancy and
uncertainty on storm coverage, a WW appears unlikely this evening.

...Lyons/Hart.. 06/03/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_akZWynWjF91YIAgfmOXSDW6dZ8b-qoRMua-zK9xnHMpN5Ja64CXBlDempI7CXclc9XRjiYxv=
ZfTItmzDz5Kj0wpg9c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   48070503 48770475 49030383 49050203 49030127 48680100
            48240084 47750082 47020108 46570148 46380200 46120322
            46090367 46120395 46400439 48070503=20


=3D =3D =3D
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