Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1153
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 03 2024 20:43:54

ACUS11 KWNS 032043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032043=20
ARZ000-032245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...southwestern through central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385...

Valid 032043Z - 032245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385
continues.

SUMMARY...A slowly organizing cluster of thunderstorms will
overspread much of central Arkansas, including the Little Rock
vicinity, through 5-7 PM CDT, with a continue risk for strong to
occasionally severe wind gusts.  Trends will continue to be
monitored for a possible additional watch downstream, WW 385 could
be locally extended northeastward through central Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing cluster of storms has become a bit better
organized, with a developing mesoscale convective vortex now east of
Fort Smith, and 50 kt west-northwesterly rear inflow in the 1-3 km
AGL layer evident on the Fort Smith VWP.  The leading edge of the
convective outflow, and stronger convective development, is still
advancing eastward at a relatively modest 30+ kt.  However,
boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing immediately ahead of the
outflow into central Arkansas, where 2-hourly surface pressure falls
are maximized (around 3 mb) near Little Rock.  This could support at
least some further intensification and acceleration into early
evening.

...Kerr.. 06/03/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-QBzN26r5PmNhf9qIz5cwMicAo_moonGTmoiEo0DzJLfPJSRXsH2frQdGdMfBI2t8VGIPLlWJ=
OY9mO19ZVFmEkIRVNU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33959395 34369348 34999331 35649315 35869248 35509162
            34729139 33449221 33329370 33959395=20


=3D =3D =3D
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