Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 03 2024 20:11:01

AWUS01 KWNH 032010
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040009-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0388
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...much of Arkansas, northern Louisiana,
northeastern Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032009Z - 040009Z

Summary...A forward-propagating MCS will continue to pose an
isolated flash flood threat across the discussion area through 01Z.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues on an isolated basis
despite appreciable forward movement of a linear convective
complex extending from roughly 30 miles east of Fort Smith, AR to
near De Queen, AR to Paris, TX.  Parts of this line were moving at
an estimated 60 mph at times.  Despite the forward movement, an
impressive 1.72 inch hourly total was noted at Sallisaw, OK
earlier with this complex, and a couple of instances of flash
flooding were reported near Fort Smith.  MRMS hourly estimates of
1-2 inch totals continue particularly across west-central Arkansas
with this complex, and although FFG thresholds are generally
higher than the rain rates (around 2-2.5 inch/hr), recent
observations and models suggest that at least an isolated flash
flood risk should continue in the short term - especially in
low-lying/sensitive and/or urbanized areas.

Over time, this complex is expected to persist while migrating
southeastward across Arkansas and northern Louisiana over the next
3-5 hours.  An isolated flash flood risk will continue with this
activity.   Somewhat greater concern could develop on the
southwestern flank of this activity especially if a
southward-moving outflow boundary can stall and focus convection
in a localized area for longer than an hour.  This risk is highest
near the ArkLaTex and portions of northern Louisiana.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5GbJyxlLeLS0BwmsjJJe2GktgHs4u8wTO5kHwuKVQ28YrwGX3kHe5-MjwtyWcOi8OOvG=
i2LMs76KOsfsB2xe9dj6NLA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36319180 35939040 34139068 32909124 32449268=20
            32659458 33039515 33639502 34119428 34869362=20
            36239309=20

=3D =3D =3D
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