Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1147
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 03 2024 08:00:46

ACUS11 KWNS 030800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030800=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-030930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...Southwest KS to northwest OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...

Valid 030800Z - 030930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383
continues.

SUMMARY...Increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts is
expected through dawn as a developing QLCS intensifies across
southwest Kansas. It appears this should eventually track towards
northwest Oklahoma and an additional severe thunderstorm watch will
be considered as it approaches.

DISCUSSION...A 150-km long developing QLCS is ongoing across
southwest KS. While it is initially rooted from elevated parcels and
MRMS MESH cores have flirted around 1 inch, strong surface wind
gusts have been observed (up to 55 mph at the Ulysses AWOS). This
QLCS should intensify as it impinges on increasing buoyancy
advecting across the Panhandles amid a 45-50 kt south-southwesterly
low-level jet per Amarillo VWP data. Surface wind gusts of 55-70 mph
should become more numerous into daybreak.

While the bulk of 00Z CAM guidance indicated MCS development
spreading more easterly across southern KS, the 06Z HRRR along with
00Z NSSL-MPAS suggest a more southeasterly track into northwest OK.
Given the placement of both the MLCAPE/MUCAPE gradient and residual
outflows from prior MCSs, this scenario appears more likely.

...Grams/Thompson.. 06/03/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_HV7Ca9jY4oV5SlFL28nA4Kpi3Z8pVkmhWa2oODayIHIsB4tEi-nLBmNWAboB2vyDPX8wRDLA=
YQT9vw7Z5Kk0nlUfak$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   38280065 38310006 37739874 37329808 36939772 36579780
            36339802 36149857 36089920 36309981 36880080 37330129
            37690139 38280065=20


=3D =3D =3D
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