Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 03 2024 04:51:46

AWUS01 KWNH 030451
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0381
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...Eastern NE...West-Central to Southwest IA...Far
Northwest MO...North-Central KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030450Z - 030900Z

SUMMARY...A localized threat of flash flooding will be possible
overnight as a complex of heavy showers and thunderstorms advances
west to east across the region.

DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar imagery shows a well-organized
and generally forward-propagating MCS advancing through eastern NE
and north-central KS. A moist and unstable low-level jet of 30 to
40 kts is noted our ahead of the convective mass, and the latest
RAP analysis shows MLCAPE values of as much as 2000 to 2500 J/kg.

Given the thermodynamic environment and broadly divergent flow
aloft downstream of shortwave energy advancing east into the High
Plains, this MCS should tend to have some sustainability as it
advances farther off to the east. Given the persistence of the
moist/unstable southerly low-level jet and organized nature of the
convection, some of the rainfall rates will be capable of reaching
1.5" to 2.0"/hour.

In time, areas farther east into far northwest MO and
west-central/southwest IA will come under the influence of this
MCS, but the heaviest rains should generally be over eastern NE
based on the latest satellite and radar trends. Some rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches cannot be ruled out. This will especially
be the case where some isolated instances of cell-merger activity
occurs.

Given some of the locally moist antecedent conditions, and
especially over eastern NE, some localized instances of flash
flooding will be possible overnight before the convective complex
begins to weaken.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_8fWj2CozDkr5-cL86rwCaxkGvsqwYBn64HBS1S8krsoQmujoUG7S3OQ0OlhecL3q5kZ=
T-06UVykhj7cHuHBDksh20k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42699608 41959483 40469498 39439591 38999685=20
            38999784 39179822 39619824 40009807 40659758=20
            41169740 42239733=20

=3D =3D =3D
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