Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 02 2024 23:59:45

AWUS01 KWNH 022359
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-030300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0378
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...east Texas into southwestern Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 022358Z - 030300Z

Summary...Robust, slow-moving convection was drifting very slowly
northward across the discussion area while producing 1-3 inch/hr
rain rates.  Flash flooding is likely on at least an isolated
basis.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorm activity continues to focus
along weak, northward-drifting surface boundaries across the
discussion area.  The storms are embedded in very strong
instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and a moist axis extending
from north-central Texas through southwestern Louisiana containing
2 inch PW values.  Modest organization was also noted, with weak,
but veering wind fields with height contributing to occasional
updraft rotation/persistence at times.  This was resulting in
slow-moving storms along with 1-3 inch/hr rain rates.=20

The ongoing scenario should continue to support flash flood
potential over at least the next 2-3 hours.  The heavy rainfall is
occuring atop region that have experienced abundant rainfall over
the past couple months, with wet soils supporting excessive
runoff.  Low-lying/sensitive areas could also experience excessive
runoff.

Eventually, an MCS across north-central Texas should reach the
area and merge with any lingering convection in the 03-05Z
timeframe.  This represents another opportunity for excessive
rainfall.  Isolated 2-4 inch rainfall totals are possible through
03Z tonight.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_S9_lXaTDdwxrF-aOifHBaJeDlJbxu5N6nHK7AmyMDDiYgoi7my2LlyA6ghuXTqQ4dRf=
kCvZYozJnbxHKi5fP1fuwaU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31999620 31999503 31569308 30889274 30409326=20
            30579481 31389650=20

=3D =3D =3D
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