Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1127
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jun 02 2024 19:02:08

ACUS11 KWNS 021902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021901=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-022130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota into far northern
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021901Z - 022130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
across portions of North Dakota this afternoon. A few stronger
storms will be accompanied by marginal hail/wind risk, but at this
time WW issuance appears likely to remain unnecessary.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows convection
developing southward across south-central North Dakota, south of an
initial, strong storm now crossing Eddy County.  Meanwhile, some
increase in cumulus development is evident southwestward into
northwestern South Dakota, along a weak cool front.

Mixed-layer CAPE currently ranges from around 500 J/kg (northeastern
North Dakota) to 1500 to 2000 J/kg southwestward into northwestern
South Dakota.  This -- combined with modest shear (moderate/roughly
unidirectional southwesterly flow in the lower and middle
troposphere) suggests a few stronger multicell-type storms can be
expected this afternoon, potentially clustering into a larger MCS
this evening as storms shift eastward toward Minnesota.  Overall
severe risk should remain limited however, potentially precluding
the need for WW issuance.

...Goss/Smith.. 06/02/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5VOa5HHNq6zzXOBslcSwrorKK3dos8KpjRxLIxZ8GhnJLRX9uc6VFaLLowoIhPgSEHH9R9yRp=
3IyWRDJtHxUk75dryk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46540170 46850076 47659983 48199877 48279816 47689747
            46919738 46039798 45670028 45870197 46540170=20


=3D =3D =3D
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