Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1110
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 01 2024 18:49:26

ACUS11 KWNS 011849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011848=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-012015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Areas affected...Parts of far west into southwest TX...southeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 011848Z - 012015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storm development is expected later this afternoon,
with a threat of very large hail, localized severe gusts, and
possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is likely by 3 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating is underway early this
afternoon from southwest into far west TX and southeast NM.
Low-level southeasterly flow will support continued moistening
through the afternoon beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, resulting
in moderate to strong destabilization. As CINH continues to weaken
with time and a subtle subtropical shortwave trough approaches from
the west, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is
expected by mid to late afternoon.=20

Midlevel westerly flow is generally modest across the region, though
somewhat stronger with southward extent into the Trans-Pecos and
southern parts of the Permian Basin. A couple of supercells may
evolve out of initial convection and move east-southeastward, with
an attendant threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. The
threat for very large hail (potentially 2 - 3.5 inches in diameter)
may become maximized across parts of the Trans-Pecos region from 4-6
PM CDT, when a supercell or two is expected to mature across that
region. Finally, while low-level flow/shear will generally remain
weak, a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially with any supercell
that can propagate into the richer low-level moisture.=20

Watch issuance is likely by 3 PM CDT, in response to the threats
described above.

...Dean/Smith.. 06/01/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-bca_p85OX5oa9XHtr-6-jqoOn-UDXqiDW90-9BoXSjK5JlrrkDMaJHJirCaUoTGvO0kjKqDx=
wfomVHM4oPww8uuBJc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   30760467 32460537 33520539 34230391 33980264 33280225
            31910200 29690177 29570249 28950288 28900353 29120384
            29640454 30760467=20


=3D =3D =3D
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