Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 01 2024 16:06:15

AWUS01 KWNH 011606
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-012200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0366
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Areas affected...middle/upper TX coast into southwestern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011602Z - 012200Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is expected through 22Z
across the middle/upper TX coast into southwestern LA. Rainfall
rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr are expected with the slowest moving storms
but the coverage of these higher end rates is expected to remain
low, but nonetheless may still result in some areas of flash
flooding..

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms was ongoing near
Matagorda Bay at 1530Z, sparked in part by the southern influence
of a shortwave centered over northern TX near an effective frontal
boundary marking the leading edge of very rich low level moisture
with surface dewpoints in the lower 80s. 15Z SPC mesoanalysis and
the 12Z CRP sounding indicated a broad area of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in
place along and just inland of the Gulf Coast from near Corpus
Christi Bay into southern LA.

The ongoing thunderstorm cluster over the middle TX coast is
expected to continue movement into the Gulf, through some residual
development on outflow will be possible to its immediate south and
west. Farther up the coast, visible satellite imagery showed an
expanding cumulus field with a few developing cells in and around
Galveston Bay. The advection of low level moisture into the region
and daytime heating supports little to no CIN area wide, and weak
convergence along the effective frontal boundary is expected to
support an increasing coverage of thunderstorms into the early
afternoon. In addition, a progressive axis of enhanced upper
diffluence is forecast to shift eastward across LA early this
afternoon.

Sufficient vertical shear exists for cell organization and
forecast cell motion vectors show slow movement near 10 kt. While
0-3 km winds are forecast to remain relatively weak at 10-15 kt or
less, outflow boundaries and storm mergers are likely to produce
high rainfall rates. The moist environment should be supportive of
efficient rainfall production with 2 to 3+ inches of rain in an
hour or less. While the coverage of these higher end rainfall
rates is expected to remain low across the broader middle/upper TX
coast into southwestern LA, a few areas of flash flooding may
result, especially given overlap with any urban areas.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6KqwYd7KQKFFlCo8HrvCvMaoxawtykd7zJrwURXzedMfREil101A_nUUt1bbJS6INX3R=
8onmvSemhaANCmGqxbUt5e0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30839448 30719286 30469200 30049177 29579215=20
            29369378 28749513 28199633 27879714 27999768=20
            28439769 28829736 29239699 29829639 30289590=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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