Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1103
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 01 2024 08:11:47

ACUS11 KWNS 010811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010811=20
NEZ000-COZ000-011015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Areas affected...NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 010811Z - 011015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for isolated large hail should persist through
sunrise with a few elevated supercells across the western Nebraska
Panhandle vicinity.

DISCUSSION...A trio of elevated supercells have formed as a result
of a well-advertised overnight increase in low-level moisture
northward over the central High Plains. The northwestern most of
this trio, near Alliance, appears to be the deepest updraft. With
MUCAPE having increased to about 1000 J/kg coupled with moderate
northwesterly deep-layer shear, the threat for large hail will
probably persist for a few hours through at least sunrise. Low-level
flow appears to be relatively modest, yielding some uncertainty on
how long the severe hail threat will last. 00Z HREF signal suggests
relatively shorter-lived supercells should be expected, although the
00Z NSSL-MPAS runs indicated potential for a longer-lived, more
intense storm occurring.

...Grams/Thompson.. 06/01/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9oXzAjaceosSS2Kc_533dilJBkV69EErAkgvIh84yr5BZuxZVqgbE7yudm97hNZ4u4ahJd9F_=
EsdpJaWI1G6GIFL19c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42660296 42330220 41930131 41520105 41100092 40930121
            40970205 41140265 41730336 42100373 42470385 42660296=20


=3D =3D =3D
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