Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jun 01 2024 02:15:35

AWUS01 KWNH 010215
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-010613-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0363
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1014 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas affected...Far Eastern NM into the TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010213Z - 010613Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally consolidating supercell
thunderstorms across far eastern NM and into portions of the TX
Panhandle will foster a threat for some instances of flash
flooding over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with radar imagery shows several slow-moving supercell
thunderstorm clusters over areas of far eastern NM and the TX
Panhandle region which are seen gradually beginning to consolidate
and merge together.

Shortwave energy ejecting east out of the southern Rockies will
continue to interact with a moderate to strongly unstable airmass
pooled up across the southern High Plains and in vicinity of a
west/east quasi-stationary front draped across the region. MLCAPE
values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg are in place and with rather divergent
flow aloft, and convergence near the front, additional upscale
growth of convection is expected over the next few hours.

Cell-merger activity and the instability environment will be
conducive to producing rainfall rates of up to 2"/hour, and while
there is quite a bit of large hail noted with these supercells,
there will be a threat for locally as much as 3 to 4 inches of
rain where these cells consolidate over the next few hours.

Generally the latest hires guidance appears to be a bit underdone
with the overall convective threat in the short-term, and
gradually an MCS should evolve out of the cell-mergers with a
forward propagation off to the east.

Some instances of flash flooding will be possible over the next
few hours given the slow-moving cells and expected rainfall totals.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-rZ3wSmEYRejV7qO1N8Jk7kA2Dca9CboastDZLRiDaPkcV5_aVKqK3hcDRNEsuUUb6LC=
c2yMglfkU5kdQRbIuymHfxk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36300181 36300100 35680052 33850101 33050191=20
            32970288 33180377 33680412 34540365 35350290=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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