Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1092
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 31 2024 10:45:39

ACUS11 KWNS 311045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311045=20
TXZ000-311215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas affected...Southeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...359...

Valid 311045Z - 311215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358, 359
continues.

SUMMARY...A strong to isolated severe wind threat should persist
across southeast Texas as a QLCS shifts southeastward towards the
Middle to Upper Texas Gulf Coast.

DISCUSSION...Slowing forward speed to around 35-40 kts, along with
gradually warming cloud tops suggests the arcing QLCS largely
remains strong to marginally severe. Surface gusts of 45-60 mph have
been common along the eastern two-thirds of the QLCS arc. Recent
HRRR runs insist on a potential secondary surge towards the Middle
to Upper TX Gulf Coast before it moves offshore. It is plausible
that this could occur given the presence of a relatively pronounced
MLCAPE gradient from a plume of large buoyancy still over south TX.
But recent observational trends suggest this scenario may becoming
less likely.

...Grams.. 05/31/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-Eb_d46pqyhCjQCxhKGDNLu4egAA99YKyZwuztvi6XX6A4nZag7IORoYD_vI3m8RmpItLm24h=
o4Db5ZKsfoRmh-DAS8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   31619571 31619519 31639491 30989436 30489440 29499515
            29159597 29119648 29119695 29469780 29929792 30119772
            30279703 30589629 31619571=20


=3D =3D =3D
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