Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 31 2024 03:49:02

AWUS01 KWNH 310348
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-310845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0355
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1148 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Eastern CO...Western KS...Southwest
to South-Central NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310345Z - 310845Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
focusing across portions of eastern CO, western KS and into
southwest to south-central NE may result in some instances of
flash flooding over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows multiple small-scale
clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms edging gradually out
into western KS, with some development over eastern CO and up
across southwest to south-central NE as well. The activity is
focused in relatively close proximity to a stationary front that
is draped from eastern CO northeastward through south-central NE.
There is a fair amount of instability pooled currently across
northwest KS where MLCAPE values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg are noted,
and the airmass is rather moist with PWs of 1.1 to 1.3 inches.

Some of the cells are very well-organized, especially over western
KS given favorable shear parameters and the instability. Given the
expected arrival of additional shortwave energy from the central
Rockies, and a relatively focused axis of frontal convergence,
some localized expansion of convection will be possible over the
next few hours.

Rainfall rates withe stronger storms will be capable of reaching
1.5" to 2"/hour with the stronger cells given the environment. The
slow cell-motions over the next few hours will tend to favor a
threat for locally excessive totals that may reach 3 to 4 inches
with isolated heavier totals. Some instances of flash flooding
will be possible as a result.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5AwwgMg4PVzHpoTlb9YmUjWKxBnyZPBprDdEiDs7X-KhGb5mpawGmYewRz1Kn41Nlpom=
5EiPwnkK_3AkDqAzX3ejTXM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41189890 40859889 39600055 38590076 38190102=20
            38100150 38270182 38570203 38910244 39130305=20
            39120413 39480497 39980490 40140413 40220247=20
            40650102 40650102 40890029=20

=3D =3D =3D
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