Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1039
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 28 2024 15:50:05

ACUS11 KWNS 281550
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281549=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-281745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Areas affected...central into southeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 281549Z - 281745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may develop along residual outflow across central
into southeast Texas from late morning into the afternoon.
Severe/damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. A watch will
likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Convection is starting to develop near/just behind
outflow across central Texas. While outflow may continue to sag
southward, a very moist airmass remains in place with surface
dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F. Strong heating and midlevel lapse
rates around 8-8.5 C/km within this moist environment is resulting
in strong destabilization (MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg). Any storms
that develop within this airmass will likely become severe, posing a
risk of large hail and severe gusts. If clustering occurs, a line of
severe storms may develop southeast from the Edwards Plateau toward
the Upper Texas Coast later this afternoon. A watch will likely be
needed for portions of the region soon.

...Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4rNCNKW-vRXm-XlKPceyEwPYzI6WlEZrZR-rnh5EQ_0_gAhyANEPfBfWG-k_ICW-FJzJbVxLU=
0g4_l7eSZGLhCopmn8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30519909 30769888 31059830 31229733 31109402 30839358
            30209367 29939375 29609436 29359492 29309566 29319726
            29359789 29439833 29509868 29629891 29959906 30189910
            30519909=20


=3D =3D =3D
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