Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0994
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 26 2024 23:58:17

ACUS11 KWNS 262358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262357=20
KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-270100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0994
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeastern MO...and northeast AR.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 320...

Valid 262357Z - 270100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing cluster of supercells with a history of producing
tornadoes will continue eastward with a risk for strong to intense
tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...As of 2350 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster
of supercells ongoing across southeastern MO within PDS Tornado
Watch #320. Several of these storms have produced tornadoes over the
past couple of hours. The environment ahead of these storms is
strongly unstable with MLCAPE greater than 4000 J/kg which is very
favorable for intense updrafts. Large ambient vorticity and enhanced
low-level shear (ESRH >200 m2/s2) is present along a modified
outflow boundary from southeast MO into northern AR and western
TN/KY, supporting the potential for strong low-level mesocyclones.
With STP values greater than 4, these storms will likely remain
capable of strong to potentially intense tornadoes this evening.
Eventual upscale growth is possible, but a significant tornado risk,
along with very large hail and damaging winds remains likely for the
next couple of hours.

...Lyons/Mosier.. 05/26/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!74V_lX6NpekPuz4aXr6gMvtArrMuq0DnrzNIfH-WCNd9WQDbwugGyMtumNKkhY8eurtxTe0E3=
kEj_zxOsOcyHAicpOQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36708924 36578936 36468971 36479011 36509055 36549120
            36609150 36809158 37049155 37309134 37659046 37629039
            37468941 37118919 36708924=20


=3D =3D =3D
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