Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0991
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 26 2024 22:54:17

ACUS11 KWNS 262254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262253=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0991
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0553 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...southeast Wisconsin and far northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 262253Z - 270000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for a couple brief tornadoes looks to continue
for the next hour or two. The threat should quickly wane as storms
approach the lake.

DISCUSSION...As of 2250 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a line
of storms ongoing beneath an upper low over parts of southeast WI
and far northern IL. Within the line several small supercell
structures have developed and have a history of brief tornadoes.
Driven by strong low-level buoyancy favorable for stretching
abundant ambient vertical vorticity, the risk for brief tornadoes
looks to continue for another hour or two. The most favorable
location for the tornado risk appears to be the northern most
section where the line orientation is more orthogonal to the
deep-layer flow. Still, brief tornadoes are possible with any small
supercell structures able to develop. Storms should begin to weaken
as they encounter the lake breeze boundary where temperatures fall
to the low 60s and inhibition increases. Given the limited coverage
and short duration, a WW is unlikely, though trends will be
monitored.

...Lyons.. 05/26/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8WDETOh4nsl13a04O19d85IpAm6i6OK1I2gUGqO_1YD8s4wexnlfR9arCTGK1OZaxSawCBEiH=
EyEscdJmnn2kdjH3k8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON   43078879 43198885 43338873 43388861 43418845 43318816
            43178804 42958792 42668792 42428805 42298816 42178834
            42138862 42148874 42368870 42578865 42648867 43078879=20


=3D =3D =3D
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