Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0986
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 26 2024 21:36:48

ACUS11 KWNS 262136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262136=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-262330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0436 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...Western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 262136Z - 262330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Downstream severe thunderstorm watch issuance will be
needed within the next 30 minutes to address an approaching MCS.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized QLCS continues to push east across the
southern Appalachians and has a history of producing damaging (50-60
mph) winds. GOES imagery shows that this line continues to produce
robust embedded updrafts despite moving into a region with weaker
deep-layer shear. This may be due to compensating effects from
higher SBCAPE on the eastern side of the Appalachians. Given the
buoyant air mass and steep low-level lapse rates downstream, the
severe/damaging wind threat should continue. Watch issuance is
likely within the next 30 minutes.

...Moore/Smith.. 05/26/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-VWyUDSSHJsL64eWb5wWOdpxOSiAPY4A8YtpO1rbt-MKhinSIjZARD7Q5zomHmNfzFptlQEvX=
ziLMYB1eGooIawgVIk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   36608128 37088106 37448101 37768107 38108128 38618145
            38918146 39218131 39528076 39718008 39687938 39587886
            39357845 39017832 38477815 37577831 36947850 36527873
            36217907 36027939 35957966 36058016 36218064 36478110
            36608128=20


=3D =3D =3D
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