Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0983
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 26 2024 20:27:15

ACUS11 KWNS 262027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262026=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-262200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0983
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...portions of far southeast Wisconsin into Northeast
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 262026Z - 262200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat exists, including the
potential for a tornado or a couple bouts of strong wind gusts/hail.
Given the isolated and brief nature of the severe threat, a WW
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is occurring within the warm sector
ahead of the surface low along the WI/IL border, with diurnal
heating supporting temperatures approaching the 70 F mark amid mid
60s F dewpoints. Ahead of a surface trough, where SBCAPE is
exceeding 1000 J/kg, surface wind remain backed, with substantial
veering and strengthening of the low-level wind field contributing
to elongated and curved hodographs. 20Z mesoanalysis show over 200
m2/s2 effective SRH in place. As such, any storm that can develop
ahead of the surface trough axis before surface winds veer may pose
a brief tornado threat, along with strong wind gusts and some hail.
Confidence in this conditional scenario is not overly high,
precluding a WW issuance at this time.

...Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8haTLzK6a7LjwhxneeX7Q9hzKAvhmLroMFeIPXcvuWeuQi65CZ1DzQMzMsCv6wmib2KIprbPz=
b-XRI8Rg-_CeLyvKJk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41588919 42598920 43068869 43098821 42718780 42228768
            41768790 41488857 41588919=20


=3D =3D =3D
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