Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0977
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 26 2024 18:37:14

ACUS11 KWNS 261837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261836=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-262100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...far southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261836Z - 262100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storm producing very large hail and a few tornadoes may
develop in the next 2 hours into southwest Missouri and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low close to the KS/OK/MO
tri-state area, where cumulus fields continue to deepen. This region
is just ahead of a developing cold front with a deep layer of
moisture convergence, and just north of a steep low-level lapse rate
plume over eastern OK.=20

Given the steep lapse rates aloft and continued heating near the
surface low and front, storms may form within 1-2 hours here. Both
instability and wind profiles favor supercells producing very large
hail, and, a tornado risk will likely increase as storms proceed
east into a more favorable low-level shear environment.

...Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4axIlYuDC53FD0licdzkMxZKkPdm6wAS0N1sWegGgye7WEARZxCfzTR4JSFp-zOiHlEF3Zk-r=
jd3jfg8V3xm9HJAiCw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36569329 36489445 36659525 36939540 37299531 37609514
            37859493 38159446 38409307 38249250 37889215 37489210
            36969241 36799274 36569329=20


=3D =3D =3D
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