Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0949
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 25 2024 16:04:30

ACUS11 KWNS 251604
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251603=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-251730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0949
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Alabama into southwestern
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251603Z - 251730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A locally higher severe threat may accompany a more robust
cluster of thunderstorms moving southeast along the AL/GA border
area. A categorical Slight Risk upgrade is anticipated for an
increased severe wind/hail risk, with convective trends also being
monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of strong multicells and perhaps
transient supercells has recently become established in east-central
AL, and is poised to continue tracking southeastward early this
afternoon. These storms are preceded by an unstable airmass (i.e.
MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg), where a modest 500 mb speed max is
also passing by. As such, a locally higher overlap of favorable
buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear will promote at least a locally
severe wind and hail threat. In response, a categorical upgrade to
Slight Risk will be made in the 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook.
Convective trends are also being monitored for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending greater storm coverage.

...Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7wDIC5X50fdj0XO--RF7tPCY96N919IIN7zh9DHiK2Q85jJm0VCreKuPfDqd26UTB8UTdQxoI=
ZSyWji3_xwoJznrHsw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   32698620 32748497 32178386 31488332 30898332 30428367
            30318433 30568504 31028576 32218635 32698620=20


=3D =3D =3D
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