Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0939
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 24 2024 21:46:53

ACUS11 KWNS 242146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242146=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-242345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0939
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Areas affected...Northern Illinois into southeast Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242146Z - 242345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to spread northeast
into northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin through the evening
hours. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but the overall
threat should remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm clusters continue to move
northeast from northwest IL/eastern IA towards northern IL/southern
WI. GOES IR imagery has shown steadily cooling cloud top
temperatures with this activity, suggesting some degree of
intensification; however, MRMS vertically integrated ice (and other
radar-based measures of convective intensity) show that most of the
stronger updrafts/convective cores have been relatively short-lived.
Some degree of air mass recovery has taken place across northern
IL/southern WI with temperatures rebounding into the 70s, but cloud
debris has limited overall destabilization, and RAP forecast
soundings hint that low-level lapse rates are fairly marginal with
some degree of lingering MLCIN. East/southeasterly low-level winds
under 40 knot mid-level flow should continue to support transient
storm organization with the deeper/stronger cells, but the marginal
thermodynamic environment should modulate the overall severe threat.
Sporadic damaging winds/hail, and perhaps a brief tornado, appear
possible given the kinematic environment, but should be sufficiently
isolated to preclude watch issuance.

...Moore/Thompson.. 05/24/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5Hut0LKzbiWRGTwPdtOsjA5O-fC9LGlgkZkB8AOSsIVTEgAhdo4CR1ytdAf7LH-BaVZTEViqB=
STYC71gtd2er7KhDlk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40718878 41218955 41789006 42259016 42948995 43328953
            43568904 43578871 43318774 42808759 42178749 41898732
            41628731 41218744 40898773 40698811 40668840 40718878=20


=3D =3D =3D
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