Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0903
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 22 2024 23:30:35

ACUS11 KWNS 222330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222330=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-230100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0903
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northern and western Kentucky...far
southeastern Indiana...and southwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 222330Z - 230100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms extending southwest to northeast
along a cold front/surface trough have rapidly developed early this
evening, with a couple of more robust updrafts noted near the KY/IN
border. A few supercells will be possible over the next 3 hours.

DISCUSSION...Enhanced surface convergence along a cold front near
the KY/IN border has led to the development of a line of
thunderstorms. An instability axis is noted along and ahead of this
zone, where MLCAPE is around 2000 J/kg. Localized deep layer shear
is sufficient for some storm organization, and a few embedded
supercells will be possible through at least sunset. Waning
instability through the evening, and a linear mode, should keep the
severe hail threat localized. A severe damaging wind threat may
accompany larger clusters or a bowing segment or two. Convective
trends will be monitored for a possible watch.

...Barnes/Thompson.. 05/22/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-vzXwWQ3tyA9LZmNROyGDWXStx6-M3Ow6-4iLB1O50pAZuRkD-VQx2FkhY7bijxiKzsfryk_8=
nTbrVDim21aLrvSia8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   37798657 37928660 38118653 38358624 38618587 38838564
            38988544 39288521 40318408 40258361 39428355 39078382
            38788396 38428418 37888470 37668524 37648584 37798657=20


=3D =3D =3D
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