Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0899
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 22 2024 21:48:03

ACUS11 KWNS 222147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222147=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-222345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0899
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Southern Arkansas...Far Northern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

Valid 222147Z - 222345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue for a few more hours
from northeast Texas eastward into southern Arkansas and far
northern Louisiana. Wind damage, hail and perhaps a tornado or two
will be possible. A new watch is being issued for parts of the
Ark-La-Tex.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Shreveport shows
scattered strong to severe storms from northeast Texas into
southwestern Arkansas, with a couple supercells ongoing. The storms
are located near an axis of strong to extreme instability, where the
RAP is estimated MLCAPE in the 4500 to 5500 J/kg range. In addition,
the Little Rock and Shreveport WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the
50 to 60 knot range. Forecast soundings in the Ark-La-Tex have
700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This enviroment
will be favorable for supercells with large hail, and hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the
strongest of updrafts. Wind damage will be likely with supercells
and the more intense line segments. Low-level shear will also be
sufficient for a tornado or two.

...Broyles/Thompson.. 05/22/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5SYx1E1M53R_q9J8lhVJqTmk0QM6LTjef7L0ldEVJ7I5tTO7Y1kNh0JncxtiYGZZ_0JdMWFcA=
X-cr0v5h5o0_cOAnXo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   34069276 34149188 34039140 33739123 33309123 32979137
            32739165 32639220 32619362 32759526 33109554 33489516
            33689460 33869389 34069276=20


=3D =3D =3D
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