Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 22 2024 21:15:17 AWUS01 KWNH 222115 FFGMPD TXZ000-230215- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0304 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 514 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...west-central to central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 222113Z - 230215Z Summary...Thunderstorm will pose an isolated flash flood threat to portions of west-central into central TX through 02Z. Rainfall rates with areas of training and merging cells may exceed 2 in/hr, producing spotty 3-5 inch totals through 02Z. Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 21Z indicated widely scattered thunderstorms including supercells just south of a cold front and ahead of a dryline over central to west-central TX. The environment across this region of TX, which includes the Hill Country, was represented by impressive MLCAPE of 3000-5000 J/kg with little to no CIN just ahead of the cold front and east of the dryline but values of 50+ J/kg near San Antonio and parts of the I-35 corridor via the 21Z SPC mesoanalysis. Precipitable water values were 1.7 to 2.0 inches per recent GPS data and the 18Z FWD sounding with plenty of shear for organized cells. Cell coverage was expanding just north of the Colorado River across Coleman and Brown into Mills counties with an average movement off toward the east at 25-35 kt but with upstream regeneration promoting MRMS-derived rainfall rates over 2 in/hr. The recent expansion of cells over central TX and the potential for cell training and merging of thunderstorms will carry the potential for rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches in an hour or less time over the next few hours. Little latitudinal movement of the front is expected over the next few hours but cold pool development and some further upstream convective development anticipated in the direction of the triple point combined with the general eastward cell movement will favor some isolated locations with potential for 3-5 inch totals through 02Z. Flash flooding will be possible, especially with overlap of sensitive terrain in the Hill Country. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-M228MI78byn3f3aZ0vWcNd-QR7odbXu2Xv4En_hs0trxn_PQLR1gPKjQqt4Zx4yfZ9a= JiUBUziOIXa_8OvSJ3WE6TQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32249880 32029699 30789661 30239796 30170001=20 30160124 30310223 30990157 31670147 32040059=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .