Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0862
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 21 2024 04:00:11

ACUS11 KWNS 210400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210359=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-210600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0862
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Areas affected...parts of northeastern Colorado...northwestern
Kansas...southwestern Nebraska

Concerning...Tornado Watch 269...273...

Valid 210359Z - 210600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 269, 273 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to pose a risk for large hail,
locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two during the
couple of hours, before storms evolve into a more organized cluster
with potential for more widespread severe gusts perhaps occasionally
in excess of 75 mph as early as Midnight-2 AM CDT.  Additional
severe weather watches will likely be needed downstream later
tonight.

DISCUSSION...Several sustained discrete supercells have evolved in a
developing cluster focused within strong warm advection centered
around the 700 mb level.  This forcing is forecast to continue
slowly developing eastward across the western Kansas/Nebraska border
area through 05-07Z.  Moistening easterly low-level flow beneath
this regime (including mid/upper 60s surface dew points advecting
across and east of the McCook NE/Hill City KS vicinities) will
continue to support increasingly unstable updraft inflow (including
CAPE possibly in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg).  As this occurs,
substantive further upscale growth and organization seems likely in
the presence of strong deep-layer shear.=20

While storm motions are initially slow in the presence of modest
southwesterly  deep-layer mean flow, which may have weakened some
this evening, convective evolution during the next few hours
probably will include the development of an increasingly
well-defined mesoscale convective vortex.  Intensifying rear inflow
to the south and southeast of this feature is expected to eventually
contribute to a more rapid forward propagation and increasing
potential for severe surface gusts.

...Kerr.. 05/21/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5mrTE2W97aSpCFH_R8Q2kEcZXoiB1SLCmDAyxFVqlo1KS117QeuYLU8YFVYGNahJJ3YsjVwZg=
rXDrHJ9DQN7JHdGfeQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   40780197 40910110 40900053 39990031 39820136 39690196
            39450294 40160315 40780197=20


=3D =3D =3D
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