Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0852
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 20 2024 19:05:09

ACUS11 KWNS 201905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201904=20
FLZ000-202100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0852
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Areas affected...South Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 201904Z - 202100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail and damaging winds are possible
with isolated strong/severe storms this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus have become more vertically developed along a
remnant surface boundary north of Lake Okeechobee. Other cumulus
agitation is occurring in south-central Florida where outflow from
convection in the Florida Keys/Straits has enhanced convergence.
Storm initiation is most likely along the sea/lake breeze boundaries
as well as the northward moving outflow and seems possible within
the next 1-2 hours. Storm coverage should remain isolated given weak
forcing aloft. Storm intensity should also be muted compared to
yesterday given warmer mid-level temperatures (around -8 C per 12Z
observed MFL sounding). Isolated marginally severe hail and damaging
winds are the primary hazards with the strongest storms this
afternoon.

...Wendt/Hart.. 05/20/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!77MoqrShmomOTveRnqdJOM9nmcvogv918G8xCZMLSKcKINl6aCvgmze-r-waU_5vd9nF1qnXY=
RNpuomHXj7yLs16gTk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27057975 26407974 25567991 25638030 25768077 26028108
            26398132 27138122 27348114 27488113 27728103 27728075
            27598036 27568008 27257979 27057975=20


=3D =3D =3D
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