Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0840
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 19 2024 22:55:56

ACUS11 KWNS 192255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192255=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-200030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Areas affected...Eastern KS...far southeast NE...western
MO...southwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 192255Z - 200030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A developing MCS over central Kansas is expected to
accelerate east-northeastward later this evening towards parts of
the Mid to Lower Missouri Valley. Damaging winds from 70-90 mph will
be the primary threat, most likely across eastern Kansas. A
downstream severe thunderstorm watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...As alluded to in MCD 0839, increasingly widespread
severe wind gusts are expected as multiple intense thunderstorm
clusters over north-central to southwest KS consolidate by
mid-evening. The leading cluster across north-central KS should
spread into northeast KS initially, with additional low-level
warm-advection-driven storms possible farther northeast across the
Mid-MO Valley. Surface dew points are generally in the mid 50s to
low 60s across northeast KS and southeast NE currently and this may
mitigate eastward intensification in the near-term. But a plume of
higher surface dew points exists both to the south, emanating north
from OK, and farther east into central/northern MO. Eventual cluster
consolidation will probably yield eastward acceleration later this
evening with embedded bows spreading across at least eastern KS. A
plume of substantial MLCIN that will increase after dusk across
eastern OK and southeast KS, may result in the more prominent severe
wind threat arcing east-northeastward in time.

...Grams/Smith.. 05/19/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4O6NIxO3JKL-HYNq2CNCqwx3o2pr7SiAWDyDPNNMyT_V63iAW6tn-UjA2vcLuE_3FwiMpjqxJ=
QU2mxyWXwME0G3JZT0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39859658 40619637 41179558 41169463 40899345 40459313
            38249378 37019512 37069656 38219623 39299628 39859658=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.