Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0831
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 19 2024 18:09:53

ACUS11 KWNS 191809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191809=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-192015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the central/northern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 191809Z - 192015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing severe gusts and hail
will be possible later this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of a modestly moist environment is
underway across the central/northern High Plains vicinity, with
recent attempts at high-based storm development already noted across
the NE Panhandle. Continued heating will support MLCAPE rising to
near/above 1000 J/kg across parts of the region later this
afternoon, along with decreasing CINH. Scattered thunderstorm
development is expected with time as a shortwave trough currently
over the northern Rockies approaches the region.=20

Deep-layer shear will generally be supportive of organized
convection, especially with northward extent across SD into far
southern ND. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells
with a threat of large hail and localized severe gusts. With time,
consolidating outflows within a relatively warm and well-mixed
environment could support some upscale growth and an increasing
severe-wind threat. Watch issuance is likely for parts of this
region later this afternoon.

...Dean/Hart.. 05/19/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5FgEpXR_mfkpeoPkmVIJ-tZRfHa02z7bQcW8NDiq_LBJQ1jC2knf3TJtQDbvP3rKswffwBkQY=
HUzVM8-FSPU1H1NBDo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41050399 42330388 44350340 45520223 46250124 46369999
            43870038 41100090 39670107 39640228 41050399=20


=3D =3D =3D
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