Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 19 2024 00:51:17

ACUS01 KWNS 190051
SWODY1
SPC AC 190049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
EASTERN TO SOUTHERN WI...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND NORTH FL TO
SOUTHEAST GA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening in parts
of eastern to southern Wisconsin and the central High Plains.
Isolated severe storms may develop over parts of north Florida and
far southeast Georgia during the early morning.

....01Z Update...
Overall severe potential has diminished across much of the CONUS.
Strong to marginally severe storms may linger for another hour or
two across parts of eastern to southern WI. Increasing MLCIN within
the modestly buoyant warm sector and diminishing low-level
convergence should result in storms further weakening through late
evening. High-based, low-topped convection persists across
east-central to southeast CO. This activity may still produce
locally strong wind gusts and small hail as storms spread east into
western KS while impinging on a more buoyant air mass in KS. But
with increasing nocturnal MLCIN, the overall severe threat should
remain marginal.

Finally, across north FL into far southeast GA, recent guidance
still suggests renewed warm-advection-driven storms should develop
within the lingering low-level baroclinic zone over the northeast
Gulf. While overall instability will be more limited in the wake of
earlier D1 convection, a low-probability severe threat might develop
within the mid-level jetlet that is downstream of the positive-tilt
shortwave trough across the Deep South and Southeast.

...Grams.. 05/19/2024

$$

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