Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0827
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 18 2024 20:50:19

ACUS11 KWNS 182050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182049=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-182245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0827
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Areas affected...NC into northern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182049Z - 182245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and hail are possible into early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of NC
late this afternoon, near a weak cold front draped across northern
NC, and also near a confluence zone farther south into
central/eastern NC. Modest heating of a moist boundary layer has
resulted in moderate destabilization south of the cold front, and a
further increase in storm coverage and intensity is possible with
time into early evening. This area is on the northern fringe of
stronger deep-layer flow associated with a shortwave trough over the
TN Valley vicinity, and some modest storm organization is possible.=20

Initial more discrete storms may be capable of producing isolated
hail and damaging gusts. With time, some consolidation of storms
will be possible along the southward-moving cold front. This may
lead to some increase in damaging-wind potential, though there may
also be a tendency for the front to undercut storms as outflow helps
to accelerate it southward.

...Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-uSHi8CdJxddM4XJKCzg5D2wPM-1OKiZPNU8vUZ16lOCV4wXewIRvWFxbgJpw-Eh8qc3JJ6gP=
TgzEKBaJAeBtegnb4s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   34978279 35118326 35428330 35568319 35698275 35858203
            36378099 36398094 36188010 35897930 35827851 35897813
            35937764 35947719 35667623 35237628 34987634 34607651
            34327717 34127794 34277914 34468018 34658121 34978279=20


=3D =3D =3D
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