Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0824
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 18 2024 16:45:14

ACUS11 KWNS 181645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181644=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-181845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Areas affected...Northeast MS into northern AL and southern middle
TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181644Z - 181845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging gusts may accompany storms this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection associated with a compact midlevel low
(which is centered near the TN/AR/MS border) is gradually
intensifying late this morning from northeast MS into northern AL
and southern middle TN. Some continued increase in storm coverage
and intensity may continue into this afternoon, within a moist and
uncapped environment (with MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1000
J/kg). This region is on the northern periphery of stronger flow
aloft, but effective shear of 25-35 kt could occasionally support
some modestly organized storm structures through the afternoon.
Isolated hail could accompany any storms that remain semi-discrete,
while a bowing segment or two could evolve with a threat of isolated
damaging gusts as storms spread eastward across northern AL and
southern middle TN.

...Dean/Hart.. 05/18/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_Y2P8EtXAZJikEUFvpaQ672PVNoqOvOpwVNYTa6vd79Z93M3U2px3rC17rXunZueBi_MbUIVz=
vUEZv_wWgn8qZRew3c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33459003 33988863 34528811 35538746 35468655 35418594
            34968580 33888598 33298688 32898776 32698850 32658914
            32878966 33459003=20


=3D =3D =3D
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