Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 17 2024 01:10:23 AWUS01 KWNH 170110 FFGMPD MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-170708- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0279 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 909 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas affected...far southeast Texas, central/southern Louisiana, southern/coastal Mississippi Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 170108Z - 170708Z Summary...An expansive convective complex continues to spread east-southeastward across far southeast Texas and portions of Louisiana. This complex has a history of flash flood impacts across central and southeast Texas. Flash flooding remains likely downstream of this complex into southeastern Louisiana and perhaps southern/coastal Mississippi through 07Z. Discussion...An expansive convective complex has evolved into a series of forward propagating linear segments along an axis extending from north of Lafayette, LA to near Galveston, TX. The complex has picked up forward speed over the past hour or so, but has still produced 2-3 inch/hr rates across portions of southeast Texas where convection was less progressive and had more of an opportunity for training/repeating. The airmass south of this complex was still abundantly moist and unstable (2+ inch PW values and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), and southerly 850mb flow of around 20-30 knots was continuing to maintain that moist/unstable airmass into the complex while also allowing for modest recovery/destabilization to occur downstream across southern Louisiana. The moisture/instability was also contributing to efficient rainfall within the MCS along with several areas of 2+ inch/hr rates at times. The greatest forecast challenge with the ongoing MCS revolves around the degree of training/persistence and potential for heavier rain rates for any length of time. In the short term, that potential has become focused into areas along the MCS from Jefferson County into Calcasieu Parish where near 3 inch/hr rates were noted. The orientation of the MCS (along with moisture/instability feeding it) will continue to support these rates at times as the overall complex translates eastward across the I-10 corridor of southern Louisiana. On its current trek, the leading edge of the MCS should reach the Baton Rouge area between 0130-0200Z and the Pearl River (along the MS/LA border area) through 03-04Z. Again, trailing precipitation on the west-southwestern flank of the lead MCS is likely to pose a flash flood risk - especially in low-lying and/or urban areas and where training can boost rain rates locally. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!561wMQIBRaTAXRxJlNLsp5McxwO3tAd7ypTFVI0TdyapQ5OHJFDw469ZkHr_SK_OKpr6= yTAAn-KCGVXwQrWj0bmOtdY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 31439019 31318873 30508842 29228888 28819026=20 29079492 29779528 30279450 30759372 31109257=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .