Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0807
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 16 2024 22:32:28

ACUS11 KWNS 162232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162231=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-170030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0807
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 162231Z - 170030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to gradually increase across the
lower MS Valley this evening. There is some consideration for a new
watch across this region later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm advection is focused across
the lower MS Valley early this evening. An expansive MCS has evolved
across east TX/northern LA and the leading edge of this activity is
slowly sagging south, but spreading/developing east of ww249. Later
this evening, LLJ is forecast to increase markedly across the
northwestern Gulf Basin into LA, and this will encourage convective
overturning of a very moist/buoyant air mass south of the MCS.
Marginally severe hail is possible with this activity but damaging
winds may be the primary risk, especially if line segments are able
to evolve.

...Darrow/Smith.. 05/16/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5WxCxU0AX1t-eINRgUWTKNni79feU8jzgfPcf57263auVxnyjHZv2NnAh46DzzW0mo9Y0io0V=
Nh-Tm9pmsCnAtEL8Lw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   31249146 30218916 29088985 30129182 31249146=20


=3D =3D =3D
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