Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 16 2024 21:22:14

AWUS01 KWNH 162122
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-170321-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0277
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
521 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Areas affected...southern Missouri, far northern Arkansas,
southern Illinois, western Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162121Z - 170321Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms are producing
estimated 1 inch/hr rain rates at times.  This could be enough to
promote isolated flash flooding in a few spots this
afternoon/early evening especially in sensitive and low-lying
areas.

Discussion...Weak low-level confluence across the discussion areas
has promoted scattered thunderstorms near the MO/AR border over
the past 1-2 hours.  These storms were in a favorable environment
for brief heavy rainfall, with 1.5 inch PW values, 1500 J/kg
SBCAPE, and 30 knots of west-southwesterly mean flow supporting
slow east-northeastward storm movement and 1+ inch/hr rain rates
at times (estimated per MRMS).  Low-level shear is relatively
weak, however, which is limiting the longevity of the storms and
resulting in spots of erratic motion/mergers at times.
Nevertheless, the storms were moving over locally sensitive areas
of the Missouri Ozarks, where local FFG guidance is in the 1.5
inch/hr range.  This suggests a localized/isolated flash flood
threat in the short term.

Ongoing flash flood potential should continue for a few hours this
afternoon while peak heating persists.  Slow, northeastward
translation of convective activity should allow for this risk to
spread toward the MS/OH River confluence region through 00Z
tonight.  Models suggest continued presence of at least isolated
thunderstorm activity after dark in a similar
thermodynamic/kinematic environment, with isolated flash flood
potential likely continuing after 03Z in most of the discussion
area.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9Ae5nlvumaTZWBODL5Fabp9_jPj188jZ52bMDz01Y3pk96MO_5rkqBh4N8Tk6rmh5hry=
osd8L1zhUgjj9JeSed3n1FM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38448886 37728795 36808799 36468916 36139013=20
            35959207 36259349 37019341 37599317 38209161=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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