Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 16 2024 20:22:14

AWUS01 KWNH 162022
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-170220-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0276
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
421 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Areas affected...central through southeastern Texas, western
Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 162020Z - 170220Z

Summary...Continued expanse of convective coverage is setting the
stage for widespread, significant flash flood potential across
portions of the discussion area through at least 02Z tonight.

Discussion...Convection continues to expand in coverage both along
an elongated MCS extending from near the Sabine River (near
IER/Natchitoches, LA) westward to near JCT/Junction, TX) and south
of this axis whtin a warm-advection regime across the Austin and
College Station areas.  The pre-convective airmass supporting the
ongoing convection is abundantly moist and buoyant (2000+ J/kg
MLCAPE and 2+ inch PW values), supporting very heavy rain rates.=20
Additionally, the east-west orientation of the MCS (parallel to
flow aloft) and robust cellular development along and south of the
MCS will allow for many areas of training/merging, with at least
1-3 hours of heavy rainfall (longest with southeastward extent)
over areas that have been abundantly wet potentially leading to
another significant flash flood episode eventually.

Continued upscale growth of the MCS is likely through the evening
along with a slow east-southeastward translation of the MCS
occurring through 02Z.  1-2 inch/hr rain rates have already been
observed, and rates should only continue to increase over time in
tandem with increasing convective coverage.  Recent runs of the
HRRR seem to have a decent handle on convective evolution, with 5+
inch rainfall totals becoming possible along an axis from near
Temple to Lufkin to Beaumont.  Hourly rain rates exceeding 3
inches are also possible at times in this general vicinity.=20
Again, ground conditions are sensitive areawide given recent
rainfall/wet soils and prior impacts.  Significant flash flooding
is expected.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_qbVpzI-L_vXMcmq0b1gGmJRA8vnXdCfpb0cK3F_mynQky7IhvqGDVS71zMOYXls3W1s=
ZvJxxQbBjR9cIhAjfKJc50k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32379483 32209187 31269156 30509182 29939346=20
            29519561 29449745 30609896 31639854 32129705=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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