Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 16 2024 00:56:51

ACUS01 KWNS 160056
SWODY1
SPC AC 160055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
A cluster of storms may still organize across parts of northern
Oklahoma and southern Kansas and pose increasing potential to
produce severe wind gusts into late evening.

....01Z Update...

....South Central Great Plains...
A weak surface frontal low over northwestern Oklahoma may still
become a focus for consolidating and upscale growing convection this
evening.  This is near the crest of broad mid-level ridging across
the southern Great Plains, along which stronger storms are now
forming.  Veering of winds with height beneath modest westerly
mid/upper flow appears to be contributing to moderately strong deep
layer shear, which could contribute to an organizing cluster this
evening near the central Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity.  Given
steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and profiles with sizable
temperature/dew point spreads, the environment appears potentially
conducive to a swath or two of severe wind gusts by mid to late
evening as activity spreads eastward toward the Ozark Plateau.

...Kerr.. 05/16/2024

$$

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