Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0791
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 15 2024 16:11:15

ACUS11 KWNS 151611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151610=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-151815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Areas affected...Portions of NC/SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 151610Z - 151815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and severe hail should
gradually increase this afternoon. Watch issuance will probably be
needed.

DISCUSSION...16Z surface observations show a front draped east-west
along and near the NC/SC border. Severe potential this afternoon
will probably remain focused along and south of this boundary, where
greater diurnal heating will occur. This heating of a moist
low-level airmass is already supporting weak to locally moderate
instability, with MLCAPE generally ranging 1000-2000 J/kg. A belt of
enhanced mid-level flow associated with a weak upper trough over the
OH/TN Valleys is present across the central into coastal Carolinas.
Around 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear is being estimated by latest
mesoanalysis, which may be a little high compared to recent VWPs
across this region. Still, sufficient effective bulk shear will be
present to support organized convection, including the potential for
a few supercells. Isolated large hail generally in the 1-1.75 inch
range will be possible with any persistent, discrete thunderstorms
that can track eastward through the afternoon. Occasional
severe/damaging winds of 55-70 mph also appear possible, especially
if convection can develop into one or more small bowing clusters.
This damaging wind potential may remain more focused along/near the
front. Given expectations for the overall hail/wind threat to
gradually increase through the afternoon, Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance will probably be needed.

...Gleason/Thompson.. 05/15/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9uvyVtyAcMOqpShheLm3Xu7W4r7sVcXnjRKkrNPMdvakN458EZ1h4Xz63naNSr-qubj7c_a8n=
1wZkwVRqC2-r_itNu4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   33138031 33548139 34258204 35198189 35448134 35397978
            35137816 34867717 34557701 33777794 33117926 33138031=20


=3D =3D =3D
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