Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 15 2024 16:31:46 ACUS01 KWNS 151631 SWODY1 SPC AC 151630 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OK AND SOUTHERN KS... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED AREA...AND OVER PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX...SC/SOUTHERN NC...AND CENTRAL FL... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern Plains this afternoon and evening, accompanied by severe wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible through this afternoon over parts of the central/northern Florida Peninsula, as well as the Carolinas. ....Carolinas this afternoon/evening... Along and south of a slow moving front across southern NC, surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 F are contributing to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and minimal convective inhibition. Thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon along/south of the front into the warm sector, in advance of embedded perturbations rotating around the southeast periphery of a midlevel trough approaching the southern Appalachians. Mostly straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt will favor a mix of organized clusters and/or supercells capable of producing large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter and damaging winds of 60-70 mph. ....Central FL today... Convection is ongoing along and north of a diffuse outflow boundary across central FL, as well as upstream over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. VWPs from TBW/MLB/JAX show largely unidirectional, west-southwesterly wind profiles with straight hodographs, in an environment with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Central FL will be along the southern periphery of the southern Appalachians midlevel trough with modest forcing for ascent near its peak this afternoon. It appears the strongest storms, which will include a mix of supercells/clusters, will tend to remain along the southern fringe of the ongoing convection, with more uncertainty farther north based on more extensive cloud cover. The strongest storms will be capable of producing large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and 60-70 mph outflow winds. ....Southern Plains this afternoon into tonight... A shallow, moist boundary layer is returning to south TX, but areas farther to the north will rely on residual low-level moisture and evapotranspiration from moist soil and green vegetation to boost boundary-layer dewpoints into the 50s/low 60s. Weak perturbations will move eastward from northern NM and CO toward the TX Panhandle/northwest OK/KS, along a weak front from central KS to the TX Panhandle. Strong surface heating along and south of the front will drive a deepening mixed layer, while there will be sufficient moisture/steep midlevel lapse rates to support MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. The moderate buoyancy and inverted-V profiles will favor hybrid microbursts with severe outflow winds of 60-80 mph, especially with any organized clusters/high-based supercells and storm mergers. Large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter will be possible with any persistent supercells or favorable storm mergers. The tornado threat will be tempered by modest low-level moisture. ...Thompson/Thornton.. 05/15/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .