Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0792
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 15 2024 17:15:48

ACUS11 KWNS 151715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151715=20
FLZ000-151845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0792
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Areas affected...Portions of the northern/central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244...

Valid 151715Z - 151845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds
continues this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The strongest convection so far this afternoon across
the central FL Peninsula has been near and north of Lake Okeechobee.
An outflow boundary from prior convection is present across this
area, with moderate to locally strong instability (2000-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE) present along and south of it per latest mesoanalysis
estimates. Weak west-southwesterly low-level winds gradually
strengthen with height through mid/upper levels based on recent VWPs
from KTBW/KMLB. Around 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear should continue
to support thunderstorm organization through the rest of the
afternoon. Although convective mode has become a bit messy with
multiple mergers/interactions, any semi-discrete supercells could
still pose a threat for isolated severe hail given the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong to locally damaging winds will
also remain a concern as filtered daytime heating aids in gradual
steepening of low-level lapse rates. Across the northern FL
Peninsula, the airmass is slightly less unstable. But, an isolated
severe hail/wind threat may still exist downstream of ongoing
convection.

...Gleason.. 05/15/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4kCpZCpFw2OLDZgzWGVBh9CN_hP_BiX2XCKBCAM3Oy9a4vAMEr703PRCuBHhVcVAeMtH2GTVM=
PtWnKxDyAxq0Zbhx6w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   29358300 29638288 30068191 29668106 28038032 27258017
            27028123 27248267 27868288 28608285 29358300=20


=3D =3D =3D
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