Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 14 2024 04:24:34

AWUS01 KWNH 140424
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-140935-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0269
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1223 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Areas affected...lower to middle MS Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140422Z - 140935Z

Summary...Training and repeating rounds of thunderstorms within
portions of the lower and middle MS Valley may result in areas of
flash flooding through 09Z. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr are
likely in a few locations.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms
at 04Z over portions of southeastern MO into eastern AR and
northwestern MS. These storms were located ahead of a mid-level
low/trough on water vapor imagery observed over west-central MO,
extending into southern OK, within a low level confluent flow
regime. This area was also within the right entrance region of a
110-120 kt jet max over MO/AR seen on 00Z upper air plots at 250
mb. While some mid-level dry air was noted on the 00Z LZK sounding
and 700-500 mb layer of Layered PW imagery over eastern AR, a
relative max in MLCAPE (500 to 1000+ J/kg) was depicted over
eastern AR on the 03Z SPC mesoanalysis along with a nose of higher
moisture with 1.5+ inch precipitable water values. These
parameters have been sufficient to support 1-2 in/hr rainfall
rates (MRMS-derived) from southeastern MO into eastern AR over the
past 2-3 hours.

Mean southwest steering flow and an increase in SSW 850 mb winds,
ahead of a low level low forecast to track from north-central AR
into southeastern MO through 09Z, are expected to support some
areas of short-term training along with a repeating round or two
of heavy rain from eastern AR into southeastern MO and adjacent
locations to the east of the MS River. While some lowering of
instability and weakening of upper level jet support is forecast
through 09Z, 1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall rates are still expected where
cells train, which are likely to produce localized 2-4 inch totals
through 09Z. These locally higher rainfall totals could result in
some areas of flash flooding.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-ELwixZMQAFalzt7CLBxb-Px3rfxKdLeFVMna8vfqT-G_Yj81SsAuTxVNAJxQmdDlD81=
VhzuK9EuuFgn5-aMENYEKl0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38318952 38188860 37138804 35768849 34258979=20
            34039135 34479216 35349246 36459200 37869059=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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