Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 14 2024 00:57:16

ACUS01 KWNS 140057
SWODY1
SPC AC 140055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
Severe-hail-producing storms should continue across deep south Texas
for a few more hours. Severe gusts may also continue into the
evening with storms in Louisiana as they move along the Gulf Coast.
Finally, isolated instances of hail and damaging gusts are still
possible this evening across the Florida Peninsula.

....01Z Update...
A mid-level trough continues to traverse the southern U.S., with a
moist and unstable airmass fueling strong to severe thunderstorms
along immediate portions of the Gulf Coast. A trailing outflow
boundary continues to progress across Deep South Texas, where
hail-producing supercells continue to move offshore into the Gulf of
Mexico. Large hail remains possible over the next couple of hours
while storms remain onshore. Meanwhile, an organized bow-echo MCS
continues to move across LA, where multiple severe gusts (some over
65 kts) have been reported. This MCS is beginning to move toward a
cooler, more stable airmass, which should dampen the severe wind
threat to a degree. Nonetheless, at least a few more severe gusts
may continue along the immediate Gulf Coast, where at least Slight
risk probabilities have been maintained. Finally, a few supercells
continue to move across the central FL peninsula, while additional
storms continue to approach the peninsula from the Gulf. Here, the
severe threat should also subside with nocturnal cooling. In the
meantime, an isolated instance of severe hail or wind cannot be
ruled out. A couple of strong storms remain possible over the
southern Plains into the Ozarks closer to a weak surface low. Before
nocturnal cooling, one of the stronger storms could produce a
marginally severe gust or instance of hail.

...Squitieri.. 05/14/2024

$$

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