Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0773
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 13 2024 23:17:16

ACUS11 KWNS 132317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132316=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-140115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Areas affected...MO Ozarks to Ouachita Mountains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132316Z - 140115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some risk for marginally severe hail and gusty winds
exists with convection into the early evening. At this time a severe
thunderstorm watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough
advancing east across eastern KS/OK into MO/AR. Cool mid-levels and
modest deep-layer lapse rates are contributing to adequate buoyancy
immediately ahead of this trough from southern MO into southeast OK.
Scattered robust thunderstorms have evolved within an air mass
characterized by roughly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and strong surface-6km
bulk shear. A few storms have exhibited some weak rotation and
isolated supercells may linger through mid evening until buoyancy
begins to wane with loss of heating. Until then, gusty winds and
some risk for marginally severe hail can be expected with this
activity.

...Darrow/Hart.. 05/13/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9aFbn1sNl6LbxYApayJ7scOd2f14FZB1JOqnjGcnrpSWgTpyg_OMW9YJXmeGZv8EnfVvIftvQ=
472qkaTdxwUEOxYS5U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34539322 34289503 34799511 35579360 36899232 36519146
            34539322=20


=3D =3D =3D
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