Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0766
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 13 2024 16:46:10

ACUS11 KWNS 131646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131645=20
TXZ000-131815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0766
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Areas affected...Portions of south-central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...

Valid 131645Z - 131815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for very large hail will continue with ongoing
supercells. Severe/damaging winds should become an increasing
concern this afternoon as convection attempts to grow upscale into a
bowing cluster.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell is ongoing to the south of the San
Antonio TX metro as of 1635Z. With extreme instability present
(4000+ J/kg MUCAPE), along with strong deep-layer shear of 45-50 kt,
a supercell mode will likely be maintained in the short term. Steep
mid-level lapse rates noted on area 12Z soundings from DRT/CRP/BRO
will aid robust updraft accelerations and a threat for large to very
large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. To the north
of this supercell into central TX, destructive updraft
interference/interactions have occurred, with a messier storm mode
observed and a lesser threat for large hail. With time, expectations
are for convection to gradually grow upscale into a small bowing
cluster as activity continues eastward through the afternoon. A
greater threat for severe/damaging winds of 60-70 mph should exist
once this mode transition occurs.

...Gleason.. 05/13/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_egsXkRsEWNc5Wurywt8D2IY9qZEPWvMqEN3OsaEKMzqO8veLzRpp6Oa5XVYAKjSQrAP_saC0=
vXKP9TfcrHNgU23j7Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29369992 29849930 29949802 29829692 29259685 28799707
            28559734 28679902 28679989 28990016 29369992=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.