Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 12 2024 01:00:56 ACUS01 KWNS 120100 SWODY1 SPC AC 120059 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may persist this evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts will continue to be possible, along with some threat for a tornado or two. ....Eastern NM into TX... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from southeast NM into west TX. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell maintenance for a few hours this evening, before CINH increases later tonight. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats with these storms. In addition, backed low-level flow and enhanced SRH near a surface boundary will support the threat for a tornado or two across east-central NM. Farther east, a long-lived elevated supercell is moving across central TX. This storm has recently shown signs of weakening, but other storms are gradually increasing across east TX. Isolated hail and damaging gusts cannot be ruled out across a broad area from northwest into east TX late tonight, but the threat appears to nebulous to make a large expansion of the Marginal Risk at this time. ....Southwest PA into western MD/eastern WV/far northern VA... Despite cool temperatures (generally in the 50s F) and very modest instability, supercells developed earlier this afternoon from eastern OH into western PA, aided by a southeastward-moving shortwave trough and cold temperatures aloft. A couple stronger cells remain possible across western MD and eastern WV (and perhaps into far northern VA) this evening, though downstream instability will become increasingly negligible with time. Isolated hail and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible with these cells until they weaken later tonight. ....Northern ND/MN... High-based convection is moving across parts of northern ND/MN this evening. While weak buoyancy may tend to limit storm organization, strong heating/mixing across the region earlier this afternoon and steep tropospheric lapse rates will support localized strong/damaging gusts through the evening as convection spreads southward. ...Dean.. 05/12/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .