Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0753
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 11 2024 21:56:51

ACUS11 KWNS 112156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112156=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-120030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Areas affected...portions of far northern North Dakota into far
northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112156Z - 120030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts could occur with the stronger
storm cores. The overall severe threat should remain isolated
though, and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...High-based/low-topped convection continues to meander
along the International border, and is poised to overspread portions
of far northern ND and MN over the next few hours. Very steep
tropospheric lapse rates precede these storms, which support
adequate evaporative cooling and associated downward momentum
transport. As such, the stronger shower/thunderstorm cores could
produce a few damaging gusts (including those approaching severe
thresholds), even if only virga is present. Still, the overall
severe threat should be isolated at best, so a WW issuance is not
anticipated.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 05/11/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9lMIaYF-84Qup3FBc-Q_G3INaJsE3bDWWY39pcrEpnsmOB_8C7vkItyO1xc3Thr76XyYe9iX8=
D4SMe2zd8b1C8autYc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   47419497 47229698 47580003 47630050 48080211 48920360
            49339712 48969445 48529422 47989470 47419497=20


=3D =3D =3D
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